Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.981567 4.337400 4.731039 5.202923 5.758884 6.400445 7.207971
2025-02-02 3.604839 4.091295 4.669620 5.423169 6.403871 7.676143 9.526011
2025-02-09 3.347475 3.902571 4.595237 5.552787 6.896476 8.814996 11.994353
2025-02-16 3.088661 3.665954 4.410416 5.483473 7.075599 9.527081 14.073911
2025-02-23 2.893225 3.484100 4.266900 5.435668 7.256547 10.262319 16.501647
2025-03-02 2.728847 3.325144 4.132862 5.375199 7.394785 10.947384 19.191198
2025-03-09 2.590484 3.188402 4.013913 5.317140 7.518628 11.630428 22.322594
2025-03-16 2.484131 3.086747 3.934059 5.306107 7.714688 12.504182 26.684789
2025-03-23 2.418328 3.036289 3.922765 5.399655 8.109837 13.923863 34.432353
2025-03-30 2.308970 2.916081 3.797022 5.289149 8.100564 14.423090 39.594713
2025-04-06 2.209336 2.804318 3.676203 5.174363 8.063882 14.848094 45.315800
2025-04-13 2.100151 2.673295 3.517866 4.981033 7.841405 14.730527 48.128558
2025-04-20 2.063233 2.648410 3.525109 5.081850 8.253793 16.538978 69.464901
2025-04-27 2.051653 2.660281 3.590650 5.293976 8.953729 19.637374 131.886551
2025-05-04 2.022568 2.643549 3.608125 5.418458 9.485433 22.614328 296.662794
2025-05-11 1.959839 2.571843 3.530205 5.351907 9.541314 23.841378 571.386179
2025-05-18 1.905314 2.510461 3.465924 5.305995 9.642291 25.369597 2097.080421
2025-05-25 1.852342 2.449283 3.398581 5.247903 9.702193 26.796592 NaN
2025-06-01 1.803151 2.392117 3.335069 5.192111 9.759813 28.308280 NaN
2025-06-08 1.764475 2.350082 3.295293 5.181507 9.942575 30.739103 NaN
2025-06-15 1.744089 2.336275 3.303459 5.271400 10.436238 35.810012 NaN
2025-06-22 1.694473 2.273616 3.222781 5.165207 10.323335 36.630666 NaN
2025-06-29 1.646706 2.212554 3.142569 5.054841 10.182616 37.180478 NaN